Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
