Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
